2025 Q4 US Earnings Season Scorecard
reported Oct–Dec 2025 · S&P 500 · companies' fiscal quarters differ
2025 Q4 US earnings season (reported Oct–Dec 2025): 85% of the 473 S&P 500 reports with a consensus estimate beat it, but only 52% of 490 reports closed higher the next session, and 45% of the 400 beats fell.
490 of 503 companies reported (97%)|490 reports with price reaction|Data through 2025-12-19
AFTERNS insight
“A quarter where strong results were actually rewarded.”
Beats ran above the prior 7-season average and fewer of them were sold than usual.
Good earningsBigger expectations
EPS beat rate
85%▲ +6%p
400 of 473 reports with a consensus
prior 7-season avg 79%
Beat but fell
45%
179 of 400 beats
prior 7-season avg 45%
Closed higher next day
52%▲ +2%p
254 of 490 reports with a price reaction
prior 7-season avg 50%
Avg next-day move
±4.5%
mean absolute move, 490 reports
prior 7-season avg ±4.7%
Results × price: the four outcomesS&P 500
Does a beat lift the stock? How this season's reports split across the four cells.
Closed higher next day
Closed lower next day
Beat and rose
47%220 reports
median move +2.9%
Beat but fell
38%179 reports
median move -2.7%
Missed but rose
5%23 reports
median move +2.3%
Missed and fell
10%48 reports
median move -4.7%
Shares are of 470 reports with a consensus and a non-flat next-day move · Not shown: in line 2 · flat 1 · no consensus 17
Beat rate vs. price reaction by sectorS&P 500
Click a dot or a sector to filter the stock table below.
Sector ranking
Explore stocksS&P 500
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Season progress
How the rates moved as reports came in. Figures are cumulative.
- EPS beat rate
- Closed higher next day
- Beat but fell
Last 8 seasons
This season and the ones before it. A season in progress can differ in mix from finished seasons' final numbers.
| Season (reported in) | Reports | EPS beat | Beat but fell | Closed higher | Avg move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 (Oct–Dec) | 490 | 85% | 45% | 52% | ±4.5% |
| 2025 Q3 (Jul–Sep) | 490 | 82% | 47% | 49% | ±5.0% |
| 2025 Q2 (Apr–Jun) | 488 | 80% | 40% | 54% | ±4.1% |
| 2025 Q1 (Jan–Mar) | 488 | 77% | 53% | 46% | ±4.6% |
| 2024 Q4 (Oct–Dec) | 489 | 76% | 47% | 48% | ±4.9% |
| 2024 Q3 (Jul–Sep) | 487 | 81% | 40% | 55% | ±4.8% |
| 2024 Q2 (Apr–Jun) | 486 | 82% | 51% | 46% | ±4.5% |
| 2024 Q1 (Jan–Mar) | 480 | 76% | 40% | 55% | ±4.7% |
| Prior 7-season avg | — | 79% | 45% | 50% | ±4.7% |
Price reaction by size of EPS surprise
How the share closing higher varied with the size of the beat. The relationship is not steady.
| EPS surprise | Reports | Closed higher | Avg move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above +10% | 132 | 65% | +1.96% |
| +5% to 10% | 101 | 60% | +1.67% |
| +2% to 5% | 114 | 43% | -0.82% |
| 0% to 2% | 53 | 45% | -1.17% |
| Below 0% | 71 | 32% | -3.43% |
Use this data
Cite freely in articles, reports and posts. The CSV below is the full per-report raw data.
AFTERNS, "2025 Q4 U.S. Earnings Season Dashboard (reported Oct–Dec 2025)," data through 2025-12-19, https://afterns.com/en/earnings-season/2025-q4
Methodology
- Season
- Calendar quarter of the release date (e.g. Q3 = reported Jul–Sep). Differs from companies' fiscal quarters; most reports cover the quarter that ended three months earlier.
- Universe
- Current S&P 500 constituents; historical membership is not restated. The reported share counts companies; every other rate counts reports.
- Beat rate
- Actual adjusted EPS above consensus adjusted EPS, among reports with a consensus. Reports without a consensus are excluded from the denominator.
- Beat but fell
- Share of beats whose stock closed lower the next session.
- Price reaction
- Next regular-session close versus the prior close; can differ from the extended-hours move. The closed-higher share is over reports with a recorded reaction.
- Four outcomes
- Only reports with a consensus and a non-flat next-day move go into the four cells; in-line, flat and no-consensus reports are counted separately.
- Average move
- Mean absolute next-session return.
- Progress
- Cumulative figures by week, week 1 starting the Monday of the first report. Weeks with fewer than 20 reports are hidden.
- Sectors
- Only sectors with at least 8 reports are ranked or plotted.
- Season comparison
- Averages use only seasons before this one. A season in progress differs in sector mix from finished seasons, which limits a simple comparison.
- Updates
- Regenerated after the collector records the next-session close (up to 6 hours' lag).
- Limitation
- For some companies the source supplies GAAP rather than adjusted EPS as the actual, so one-off items such as investment gains can inflate the surprise. Values of 100%+ are marked with †.
FAQ
- Q.
What does "2025 Q4 earnings season" cover?
- Every S&P 500 earnings release reported Oct–Dec 2025 (2025-10-07 to 2025-12-19). Seasons are grouped by release date, so a company's own fiscal quarter can differ. Most reports here cover the quarter that ended three months earlier.
- Q.
What share of S&P 500 companies beat estimates in 2025 Q4?
- 85%, or 400 of the 473 reports with a consensus estimate, against a 79% average across the prior 7 seasons. Reports without a consensus (17) are excluded from the denominator.
- Q.
Does a strong report mean the stock goes up?
- Not reliably. 45% of the 400 beats (179 reports) closed lower the next session, and only 52% of all 490 reports with a recorded price reaction closed higher. The market prices in expectations and guidance, not just the headline number.
- Q.
How did results and stock reactions combine this season?
- Of 470 reports with both a consensus and a non-flat next-day move: beat and rose 220 (47%), beat but fell 179 (38%), missed but rose 23 (5%), missed and fell 48 (10%).
- Q.
How far into the season are we?
- 490 of 503 S&P 500 companies (97%) have reported, with a next-day price reaction recorded for 490 reports. Data through 2025-12-19.
- Q.
Does a bigger beat mean a bigger stock move?
- Not consistently. This season 65% of beats above +10% closed higher (132 reports), versus 45% of beats of 2% or less (53 reports). Large beats still failed to lift the stock in a meaningful share of cases; see the surprise-size table.
- Q.
How are these figures calculated?
- Universe: current S&P 500 constituents. Season: calendar quarter of the release date. Beat rate: actual adjusted EPS above consensus adjusted EPS, among reports with a consensus. Price reaction: next regular-session close versus the prior close. Average move: mean absolute next-session return. See the methodology section.
- Q.
Can I cite this data?
- Yes, with attribution to AFTERNS (afterns.com). A CSV of every underlying report is available on this page. Data and press inquiries: contact@afterns.com.
- Q.
When is US earnings season?
- It starts mid-January, mid-April, mid-July and mid-October and runs about four to six weeks. Across a year of AFTERNS data, 59.5% of all releases landed in just eight weeks.Read the guide →
- Q.
Why do stocks fall on good earnings?
- Usually because the beat was already priced in, the market's real bar sat above the published consensus, or next-quarter guidance disappointed. Across 4,926 US reports, 45.4% of beats closed lower the next session.Read the guide →
※ Based on earnings data collected by AFTERNS. Not investment advice; actual results may differ. · Data through 2025-12-19