2024 Q4 US Earnings Season Scorecard
reported Oct–Dec 2024 · S&P 500 · companies' fiscal quarters differ
2024 Q4 US earnings season (reported Oct–Dec 2024): 76% of the 466 S&P 500 reports with a consensus estimate beat it, but only 48% of 489 reports closed higher the next session, and 47% of the 356 beats fell.
487 of 503 companies reported (97%)|489 reports with price reaction|Data through 2024-12-20
AFTERNS insight
“A defensive quarter: results trailed and even the beats were sold.”
Fewer companies cleared consensus than in the prior 4 seasons, and the market punished the ones that did.
Good earningsBigger expectations
EPS beat rate
76%▼ −5%p
356 of 466 reports with a consensus
prior 4-season avg 81%
Beat but fell
47%▲ +3%p
166 of 356 beats
prior 4-season avg 44%
Closed higher next day
48%▼ −4%p
233 of 489 reports with a price reaction
prior 4-season avg 52%
Avg next-day move
±4.9%
mean absolute move, 489 reports
prior 4-season avg ±4.6%
Results × price: the four outcomesS&P 500
Does a beat lift the stock? How this season's reports split across the four cells.
Closed higher next day
Closed lower next day
Beat and rose
41%188 reports
median move +4.3%
Beat but fell
36%166 reports
median move -3.3%
Missed but rose
7%33 reports
median move +2.8%
Missed and fell
17%77 reports
median move -3.1%
Shares are of 464 reports with a consensus and a non-flat next-day move · Not shown: in line 0 · flat 2 · no consensus 23
Beat rate vs. price reaction by sectorS&P 500
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Sector ranking
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Season progress
How the rates moved as reports came in. Figures are cumulative.
- EPS beat rate
- Closed higher next day
- Beat but fell
Last 5 seasons
This season and the ones before it. A season in progress can differ in mix from finished seasons' final numbers.
| Season (reported in) | Reports | EPS beat | Beat but fell | Closed higher | Avg move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Q4 (Oct–Dec) | 489 | 76% | 47% | 48% | ±4.9% |
| 2024 Q3 (Jul–Sep) | 487 | 81% | 40% | 55% | ±4.8% |
| 2024 Q2 (Apr–Jun) | 486 | 82% | 51% | 46% | ±4.5% |
| 2024 Q1 (Jan–Mar) | 480 | 76% | 40% | 55% | ±4.7% |
| 2023 Q4 (Oct–Dec) | 470 | 83% | 44% | 53% | ±4.2% |
| Prior 4-season avg | — | 81% | 44% | 52% | ±4.6% |
Price reaction by size of EPS surprise
How the share closing higher varied with the size of the beat. The relationship is not steady.
| EPS surprise | Reports | Closed higher | Avg move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above +10% | 110 | 63% | +3.24% |
| +5% to 10% | 91 | 63% | +1.43% |
| +2% to 5% | 85 | 42% | -0.35% |
| 0% to 2% | 70 | 37% | -1.06% |
| Below 0% | 110 | 30% | -2.07% |
Use this data
Cite freely in articles, reports and posts. The CSV below is the full per-report raw data.
AFTERNS, "2024 Q4 U.S. Earnings Season Dashboard (reported Oct–Dec 2024)," data through 2024-12-20, https://afterns.com/en/earnings-season/2024-q4
Methodology
- Season
- Calendar quarter of the release date (e.g. Q3 = reported Jul–Sep). Differs from companies' fiscal quarters; most reports cover the quarter that ended three months earlier.
- Universe
- Current S&P 500 constituents; historical membership is not restated. The reported share counts companies; every other rate counts reports.
- Beat rate
- Actual adjusted EPS above consensus adjusted EPS, among reports with a consensus. Reports without a consensus are excluded from the denominator.
- Beat but fell
- Share of beats whose stock closed lower the next session.
- Price reaction
- Next regular-session close versus the prior close; can differ from the extended-hours move. The closed-higher share is over reports with a recorded reaction.
- Four outcomes
- Only reports with a consensus and a non-flat next-day move go into the four cells; in-line, flat and no-consensus reports are counted separately.
- Average move
- Mean absolute next-session return.
- Progress
- Cumulative figures by week, week 1 starting the Monday of the first report. Weeks with fewer than 20 reports are hidden.
- Sectors
- Only sectors with at least 8 reports are ranked or plotted.
- Season comparison
- Averages use only seasons before this one. A season in progress differs in sector mix from finished seasons, which limits a simple comparison.
- Updates
- Regenerated after the collector records the next-session close (up to 6 hours' lag).
- Limitation
- For some companies the source supplies GAAP rather than adjusted EPS as the actual, so one-off items such as investment gains can inflate the surprise. Values of 100%+ are marked with †.
FAQ
- Q.
What does "2024 Q4 earnings season" cover?
- Every S&P 500 earnings release reported Oct–Dec 2024 (2024-10-01 to 2024-12-20). Seasons are grouped by release date, so a company's own fiscal quarter can differ. Most reports here cover the quarter that ended three months earlier.
- Q.
What share of S&P 500 companies beat estimates in 2024 Q4?
- 76%, or 356 of the 466 reports with a consensus estimate, against a 81% average across the prior 4 seasons. Reports without a consensus (23) are excluded from the denominator.
- Q.
Does a strong report mean the stock goes up?
- Not reliably. 47% of the 356 beats (166 reports) closed lower the next session, and only 48% of all 489 reports with a recorded price reaction closed higher. The market prices in expectations and guidance, not just the headline number.
- Q.
How did results and stock reactions combine this season?
- Of 464 reports with both a consensus and a non-flat next-day move: beat and rose 188 (41%), beat but fell 166 (36%), missed but rose 33 (7%), missed and fell 77 (17%).
- Q.
How far into the season are we?
- 487 of 503 S&P 500 companies (97%) have reported, with a next-day price reaction recorded for 489 reports. Data through 2024-12-20.
- Q.
Does a bigger beat mean a bigger stock move?
- Not consistently. This season 63% of beats above +10% closed higher (110 reports), versus 37% of beats of 2% or less (70 reports). Large beats still failed to lift the stock in a meaningful share of cases; see the surprise-size table.
- Q.
How are these figures calculated?
- Universe: current S&P 500 constituents. Season: calendar quarter of the release date. Beat rate: actual adjusted EPS above consensus adjusted EPS, among reports with a consensus. Price reaction: next regular-session close versus the prior close. Average move: mean absolute next-session return. See the methodology section.
- Q.
Can I cite this data?
- Yes, with attribution to AFTERNS (afterns.com). A CSV of every underlying report is available on this page. Data and press inquiries: contact@afterns.com.
- Q.
When is US earnings season?
- It starts mid-January, mid-April, mid-July and mid-October and runs about four to six weeks. Across a year of AFTERNS data, 59.5% of all releases landed in just eight weeks.Read the guide →
- Q.
Why do stocks fall on good earnings?
- Usually because the beat was already priced in, the market's real bar sat above the published consensus, or next-quarter guidance disappointed. Across 4,926 US reports, 45.4% of beats closed lower the next session.Read the guide →
※ Based on earnings data collected by AFTERNS. Not investment advice; actual results may differ. · Data through 2024-12-20