2025 Q1 US Earnings Season Scorecard
reported Jan–Mar 2025 · S&P 500 · companies' fiscal quarters differ
2025 Q1 US earnings season (reported Jan–Mar 2025): 77% of the 468 S&P 500 reports with a consensus estimate beat it, but only 46% of 488 reports closed higher the next session, and 53% of the 360 beats fell.
487 of 503 companies reported (97%)|488 reports with price reaction|Data through 2025-03-27
AFTERNS insight
“A defensive quarter: results trailed and even the beats were sold.”
Fewer companies cleared consensus than in the prior 5 seasons, and the market punished the ones that did.
Good earningsBigger expectations
EPS beat rate
77%▼ −3%p
360 of 468 reports with a consensus
prior 5-season avg 80%
Beat but fell
53%▲ +9%p
189 of 360 beats
prior 5-season avg 44%
Closed higher next day
46%▼ −5%p
223 of 488 reports with a price reaction
prior 5-season avg 51%
Avg next-day move
±4.6%
mean absolute move, 488 reports
prior 5-season avg ±4.6%
Results × price: the four outcomesS&P 500
Does a beat lift the stock? How this season's reports split across the four cells.
Closed higher next day
Closed lower next day
Beat and rose
37%171 reports
median move +3.8%
Beat but fell
40%189 reports
median move -3.3%
Missed but rose
10%45 reports
median move +2.8%
Missed and fell
13%63 reports
median move -3.9%
Shares are of 468 reports with a consensus and a non-flat next-day move · Not shown: in line 0 · flat 0 · no consensus 20
Beat rate vs. price reaction by sectorS&P 500
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Sector ranking
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Season progress
How the rates moved as reports came in. Figures are cumulative.
- EPS beat rate
- Closed higher next day
- Beat but fell
Last 6 seasons
This season and the ones before it. A season in progress can differ in mix from finished seasons' final numbers.
| Season (reported in) | Reports | EPS beat | Beat but fell | Closed higher | Avg move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q1 (Jan–Mar) | 488 | 77% | 53% | 46% | ±4.6% |
| 2024 Q4 (Oct–Dec) | 489 | 76% | 47% | 48% | ±4.9% |
| 2024 Q3 (Jul–Sep) | 487 | 81% | 40% | 55% | ±4.8% |
| 2024 Q2 (Apr–Jun) | 486 | 82% | 51% | 46% | ±4.5% |
| 2024 Q1 (Jan–Mar) | 480 | 76% | 40% | 55% | ±4.7% |
| 2023 Q4 (Oct–Dec) | 470 | 83% | 44% | 53% | ±4.2% |
| Prior 5-season avg | — | 80% | 44% | 51% | ±4.6% |
Price reaction by size of EPS surprise
How the share closing higher varied with the size of the beat. The relationship is not steady.
| EPS surprise | Reports | Closed higher | Avg move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above +10% | 121 | 52% | +1.50% |
| +5% to 10% | 90 | 51% | -0.04% |
| +2% to 5% | 78 | 44% | -1.41% |
| 0% to 2% | 71 | 39% | -1.55% |
| Below 0% | 108 | 42% | -1.38% |
Use this data
Cite freely in articles, reports and posts. The CSV below is the full per-report raw data.
AFTERNS, "2025 Q1 U.S. Earnings Season Dashboard (reported Jan–Mar 2025)," data through 2025-03-27, https://afterns.com/en/earnings-season/2025-q1
Methodology
- Season
- Calendar quarter of the release date (e.g. Q3 = reported Jul–Sep). Differs from companies' fiscal quarters; most reports cover the quarter that ended three months earlier.
- Universe
- Current S&P 500 constituents; historical membership is not restated. The reported share counts companies; every other rate counts reports.
- Beat rate
- Actual adjusted EPS above consensus adjusted EPS, among reports with a consensus. Reports without a consensus are excluded from the denominator.
- Beat but fell
- Share of beats whose stock closed lower the next session.
- Price reaction
- Next regular-session close versus the prior close; can differ from the extended-hours move. The closed-higher share is over reports with a recorded reaction.
- Four outcomes
- Only reports with a consensus and a non-flat next-day move go into the four cells; in-line, flat and no-consensus reports are counted separately.
- Average move
- Mean absolute next-session return.
- Progress
- Cumulative figures by week, week 1 starting the Monday of the first report. Weeks with fewer than 20 reports are hidden.
- Sectors
- Only sectors with at least 8 reports are ranked or plotted.
- Season comparison
- Averages use only seasons before this one. A season in progress differs in sector mix from finished seasons, which limits a simple comparison.
- Updates
- Regenerated after the collector records the next-session close (up to 6 hours' lag).
- Limitation
- For some companies the source supplies GAAP rather than adjusted EPS as the actual, so one-off items such as investment gains can inflate the surprise. Values of 100%+ are marked with †.
FAQ
- Q.
What does "2025 Q1 earnings season" cover?
- Every S&P 500 earnings release reported Jan–Mar 2025 (2025-01-10 to 2025-03-27). Seasons are grouped by release date, so a company's own fiscal quarter can differ. Most reports here cover the quarter that ended three months earlier.
- Q.
What share of S&P 500 companies beat estimates in 2025 Q1?
- 77%, or 360 of the 468 reports with a consensus estimate, against a 80% average across the prior 5 seasons. Reports without a consensus (20) are excluded from the denominator.
- Q.
Does a strong report mean the stock goes up?
- Not reliably. 53% of the 360 beats (189 reports) closed lower the next session, and only 46% of all 488 reports with a recorded price reaction closed higher. The market prices in expectations and guidance, not just the headline number.
- Q.
How did results and stock reactions combine this season?
- Of 468 reports with both a consensus and a non-flat next-day move: beat and rose 171 (37%), beat but fell 189 (40%), missed but rose 45 (10%), missed and fell 63 (13%).
- Q.
How far into the season are we?
- 487 of 503 S&P 500 companies (97%) have reported, with a next-day price reaction recorded for 488 reports. Data through 2025-03-27.
- Q.
Does a bigger beat mean a bigger stock move?
- Not consistently. This season 52% of beats above +10% closed higher (121 reports), versus 39% of beats of 2% or less (71 reports). Large beats still failed to lift the stock in a meaningful share of cases; see the surprise-size table.
- Q.
How are these figures calculated?
- Universe: current S&P 500 constituents. Season: calendar quarter of the release date. Beat rate: actual adjusted EPS above consensus adjusted EPS, among reports with a consensus. Price reaction: next regular-session close versus the prior close. Average move: mean absolute next-session return. See the methodology section.
- Q.
Can I cite this data?
- Yes, with attribution to AFTERNS (afterns.com). A CSV of every underlying report is available on this page. Data and press inquiries: contact@afterns.com.
- Q.
When is US earnings season?
- It starts mid-January, mid-April, mid-July and mid-October and runs about four to six weeks. Across a year of AFTERNS data, 59.5% of all releases landed in just eight weeks.Read the guide →
- Q.
Why do stocks fall on good earnings?
- Usually because the beat was already priced in, the market's real bar sat above the published consensus, or next-quarter guidance disappointed. Across 4,926 US reports, 45.4% of beats closed lower the next session.Read the guide →
※ Based on earnings data collected by AFTERNS. Not investment advice; actual results may differ. · Data through 2025-03-27