Earnings Guide

Guide contents

Pick what you want to know about US stock earnings.

1. 01US Earnings Calendar Subscription · Auto Alerts for Report DatesAdd US stock earnings dates to your Google or Apple Calendar and get a reminder the night before. Subscribe to Big Tech and semiconductor earnings calendars in one link, with no login required. Dates update automatically.
2. 02What Time Do US Companies Report Earnings? BMO vs AMC ExplainedWhat time do US companies report earnings? A breakdown of before-the-open (BMO) and after-the-close (AMC) sessions, how often each is used, whether price reactions differ, and why exact minutes are rarely knowable.
3. 03What Is an Earnings Surprise? Definition, Calculation and Price DataWhat is an earnings surprise? The definition, how the percentage is calculated, how it differs from an earnings miss, and how the size of a beat changes next-day price reaction — measured across 4,926 US earnings reports.
4. 04What Is an Earnings Shock? Definition, Threshold and Crash DataWhat is an earnings shock? The definition, why there is no fixed threshold, how far stocks fall on a miss, whether they recover, and why most double-digit post-earnings crashes actually followed a beat — across 4,926 US earnings reports.
5. 05What Is a Consensus Estimate? Meaning, Method and Real AccuracyWhat is a consensus estimate in investing? How EPS and revenue consensus figures are built, what a beat or miss means, and how accurate the estimates actually are — across 4,926 US earnings reports.
6. 06What Is Earnings Season? US Timing, Schedule and Real DataWhen is US earnings season? The 1/4/7/10 month schedule, how concentrated reporting really is, S&P 500 beat rates and next-day price reactions — from 5,005 US earnings reports.
7. 07What Is an Earnings Play? A Data GuideAn earnings play targets the big price move around an earnings report. Here's why strong earnings can still drop a stock, and what to check before the report, with data.
8. 08Earnings Preview: What to Check Before a ReportTo preview an earnings report, look at consensus EPS, past post-earnings reactions, timing, and how much is already priced in. Prepare with data, not a hunch.
9. 09Earnings Analysis: How to Read Post-Earnings Price MovesEarnings analysis means reading the reported numbers (EPS, revenue, guidance) together with the price reaction. What to look at, and how to spot the ‘good earnings ignored’ signal, with data.
10. 10Why Do Stocks Fall on Good Earnings? (Beat but Fell)Why a stock can beat consensus and still drop: priced-in expectations, weak guidance, and the gap versus the whisper number. How to spot mismatch-prone stocks with data.

Earnings basics

Earnings

A company's official report on how it did over a period: revenue, profit, and more. US companies usually report every 3 months, often with a forecast for the next quarter.

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

Net income divided by the number of shares, so it is the profit behind a single share. It is the most watched number in an earnings report, and it gets compared with the analyst forecast to call it a beat or a miss.

Revenue

The total sales a company generates from its products and services. It sits above profit and matters for growth. A stock can fall on weak revenue even when EPS beats.

Consensus

The average of analyst forecasts, in other words what the market expects. A result above it is a 'beat', below it a 'miss'.

Guidance

The company's own forecast for the next quarter or year. Forward guidance often moves the stock more than the just-reported results. Strong earnings with weak guidance can still send a stock down.

Pre-market (BMO) / After close (AMC)

When earnings are released. BMO (Before Market Open) is a morning release before US markets open; AMC (After Market Close) is an afternoon release after the close.

Reading the price reaction

Earnings Surprise

How far the actual result came in above or below the forecast. Bigger surprises tend to move the stock more, though not always.

Next-day reaction

The stock's move on the first trading day that takes the report in. For a report after the close, that is the next session's close. For one before the open, it is the same day's close. This is the number AFTERNS looks at most, because it shows most directly how the market took the results.

Average move on report day

The average size of the move on past earnings days, so you can see how much a stock tends to swing. Large caps often move 3 to 5%, more volatile names into double digits.

Price vs earnings (mismatch)

When a stock falls despite good results (a consensus beat). Often the expectation was already priced in, or the guidance disappointed. This is AFTERNS's core lens.

Priced-in

When a stock has already risen on expectations before the report. Even strong results can then trigger profit-taking and a pullback.

Post-earnings drift (PEAD)

The tendency for a stock to keep moving the same way as its earnings-day reaction for days or weeks after. Academics call it Post-Earnings Announcement Drift.