How do stocks move right after earnings?
AFTERNS — short for “After Earnings” — shows how 1,200+ US-listed stocks moved right after each earnings announcement, as a 3-year (about 12-quarter) timeline with statistics: next-day up probability, average earnings-day move, beat/miss vs price-direction mismatches, guidance reactions, and the next earnings date for every stock.
Good results don't guarantee a rising stock. Markets react to expectations already priced in and to guidance, not just the reported numbers. AFTERNS focuses on quantifying mismatch patterns — like “beat consensus, yet fell” — for each stock.
Fundamentals (EPS, revenue, quarters) come from SEC EDGAR filings (10-Q/10-K, XBRL). Actual announcement dates, consensus EPS estimates, reported EPS (incl. non-GAAP), and adjusted close prices come from Yahoo Finance aggregates. We cross-check the sources against each other to keep announcement dates and reaction math accurate.
· Next-day reaction: percent change from the last close before the announcement to the first close after it — the same rule for before-market (BMO) and after-market (AMC) reports. · 5-day drift: pre-announcement close → 5th trading-day close. · Excess vs market: the same-day S&P 500 (SPY) move subtracted. · Move intensity (σ): the reaction relative to the stock's trailing 63-day daily volatility. · Up probability: share of sampled quarters with a positive reaction; stats are hidden below 4 quarters of sample.
Earnings data and upcoming dates are refreshed frequently during earnings season. Upcoming dates may be consensus-based tentative values until companies confirm them.
Everything on AFTERNS is for information only — not a buy/sell recommendation or investment advice. Past post-earnings reactions do not guarantee future returns. Collection or processing errors are possible; verify against original filings before important decisions, and email us if you spot an error.
We welcome your feedback to make AFTERNS better. Data corrections and partnership ideas are always welcome: contact@afterns.com