Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) earnings date & stock reaction
TSM · Taiwan Semiconductor · Semiconductors
“Gross margin decreased by 1.3 percentage points sequentially to 66.4%, primarily due to margin dilution from 2-nanometer ramp.”
“We now expect our full-year 2026 revenue growth to be around 44% year over year in US dollar terms.”
- ▲AI-Driven Revenue Surge
- Q3 revenue was $46.72 billion, an increase of 41.2% vs last year.
- HPC revenue grew 22% vs last quarter, accounting for 68% of total revenue.
- ▲Advanced Technology Leadership
- Advanced technologies (7nm and below) accounted for 79% of total wafer revenue.
- The 2nm process contributed 8% of wafer revenue in Q3, marking a successful ramp-up.
- ▲Robust Annual Outlook
- Full-year 2026 revenue growth is expected to be around 44% vs last year.
- Management expressed confidence in multi-year structural growth supported by strong AI accelerator demand.
- ▼Margin Dilution from Advanced Nodes
- Gross margin decreased by 1.3 percentage points vs last quarter to 66.4%.
- The ramp-up of 2nm technology and overseas fabs continues to dilute margins.
- ▼Rising Costs of Overseas Fabs
- Margin dilution from overseas fabs is expected to widen to 3% to 4% over the next few years.
- Higher operating costs in overseas regions pose a structural challenge to profitability.
- ▼Decline in Specific Segments
- DCE revenue declined 12% vs last quarter.
- Consumer and price-sensitive segments remain challenged due to macroeconomic uncertainties.
Price after the latest report
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) rose the day after earnings in 8 of its last 12 reports (67%), moving ±3.7% on average. It has fallen despite beating the consensus estimate 4 times.
When results drop, check the metric above vs last quarter and whether guidance beats expectations.
The real bar for this stock
Beating estimates isn't enough. Here's where the real surprise started.
How this stock reacts to earnings
Traits seen across its recent earnings reactions
Earnings number vs guidance: which drives it?
How often the beat/miss matched the actual price move
4/12 beats fell next day · watches HPC revenue · utilization · capex
- Jun 2026 report-2.3%
- Mar 2026 report-1.3%
- Dec 2025 report+4.4%
- Sep 2025 report+3.0%
- Jun 2025 report+3.4%
- Mar 2025 report+0.1%
Earnings timeline · bars = next-day move, ▲▼ = beat/miss
Earnings trend · last 12 quarters
Earnings history and price reaction
| Quarter ended | Reported (ET) | vs market expectation (consensus) | Earnings day | After 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/2026 | 2026-07-16 | +10.9% | -2.3% | +0.4% |
| 3/2026 | 2026-04-15 | +4.7% | -1.3% | -3.1% |
| 12/2025 | 2026-01-15 | +5.5% | +4.4% | +0.1% |
| 9/2025 | 2025-10-15 | +11.2% | +3.0% | -0.5% |
| 6/2025 | 2025-07-17 | +6.8% | +3.4% | +1.2% |
| 3/2025 | 2025-04-17 | +3.2% | +0.1% | +8.3% |
12 reports, quarters ending 9/2023 to 6/2026. The earnings-day move is the first trading day that reflects the report; the five-day figure is the cumulative move from that point.
Frequently asked questions
When is the next Taiwan Semiconductor earnings date?
The next Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) earnings report is expected Thu, January 14 (estimated). This is an estimate based on past reporting dates, not a confirmed date.
Does Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) stock usually go up after earnings?
Over the last 12 earnings reports, the stock rose on 8 of them (67%). The average move on earnings day was ±3.7%.
Does Taiwan Semiconductor react more to the earnings numbers or to guidance?
In 4 of the last 12 reports (33%), the stock moved the opposite way from whether it beat or missed the forecast. A high share means guidance and expectations drive the move more than the reported numbers.
Can Taiwan Semiconductor stock fall even when earnings are good?
Yes. In 3 of the last 12 reports, Taiwan Semiconductor fell on the earnings day despite growing EPS. Expectations already priced in, or guidance, can matter more than the reported numbers.
Does Taiwan Semiconductor stock keep moving after the earnings day?
Over the last 12 reports, the move continued in the same direction for the following five trading days 33% of the time. This tendency is known as post-earnings announcement drift.