ASML Holding (ASML) earnings date & stock reaction
ASML · ASML Holding · Semiconductors
“With such strong visibility and an order book momentum that continues to increase quarter on quarter this year, we now expect that our supply as currently planned for both 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet the demand of our customers.”
“This anticipated year-over-year total net sales increase of around 36% reflects our expectation of over 45% growth in EUV, around 20% growth in non-EUV related system sales, and around 50% growth in installed base management sales.”
- ▲Record-breaking sales and margins
- Total net sales reached 11.7 billion euros in Q3, up from 9.3 billion euros in the previous quarter.
- Installed Base Management sales hit 3.3 billion euros, beating guidance and driving a 57.5% gross margin.
- ▲Strong order momentum from AI demand
- AI investments are driving demand so high that supply is expected to fall short of customer needs through 2028.
- Visibility is strong, with customers expressing interest in placing orders for 2029 and 2030.
- ▲Capacity expansion and new product rollout
- EUV system output for 2026 has been increased to 65 units, a 50% growth vs last year.
- The company plans to introduce the next-gen Low-NA EUV system, NXE:3800F, starting in 2027 to boost productivity.
- ▼Supply chain bottlenecks and expansion costs
- The need to exceed the 30% capacity growth target for 2028 increases pressure on the supply chain.
- Additional costs incurred to ramp up capacity could impact future gross margins.
- ▼Net income boosted by one-time gains
- The 5 billion euro net income for Q3 includes a gain of approximately 0.5 billion euros from the valuation increase of the Mistral AI investment.
- ▼Sustainability of upgrade sales
- It remains uncertain whether the high level of Installed Base Management sales, which drove Q3 performance, can be sustained in the future.
Price after the latest report
ASML Holding (ASML) rose the day after earnings in 5 of its last 12 reports (42%), moving ±6.4% on average. It has fallen despite beating the consensus estimate 7 times.
Even when EPS beat expectations, the stock fell 7 of the last 11 times. The number alone doesn't move it.
When results drop, check the metric above vs last quarter and whether guidance beats expectations.
The real bar for this stock
Beating estimates isn't enough. Here's where the real surprise started.
How this stock reacts to earnings
Traits seen across its recent earnings reactions
Earnings number vs guidance: which drives it?
How often the beat/miss matched the actual price move
7/11 beats fell next day · watches New orders · China mix
- Sep 2026 report-1.9%
- Jun 2026 report-4.0%
- Mar 2026 report+1.2%
- Dec 2025 report+2.9%
- Sep 2025 report+2.7%
- Jun 2025 report-8.3%
Earnings timeline · bars = next-day move, ▲▼ = beat/miss
Earnings trend · last 12 quarters
Earnings history and price reaction
| Quarter ended | Reported (ET) | vs market expectation (consensus) | Earnings day | After 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/2026 | 2026-10-14 | +9.9% | -1.9% | — |
| 6/2026 | 2026-07-13 | +9.1% | -4.0% | -2.8% |
| 3/2026 | 2026-04-14 | +8.0% | +1.2% | -1.6% |
| 12/2025 | 2026-01-27 | -2.7% | +2.9% | +2.0% |
| 9/2025 | 2025-10-15 | +2.1% | +2.7% | +4.3% |
| 6/2025 | 2025-07-16 | +12.4% | -8.3% | -14.3% |
12 reports, quarters ending 12/2023 to 9/2026. The earnings-day move is the first trading day that reflects the report; the five-day figure is the cumulative move from that point.
Frequently asked questions
When is the next ASML Holding earnings date?
The next ASML Holding (ASML) earnings report is expected Wed, January 13 (estimated). This is an estimate based on past reporting dates, not a confirmed date.
Does ASML Holding (ASML) stock usually go up after earnings?
Over the last 12 earnings reports, the stock rose on 5 of them (42%). The average move on earnings day was ±6.4%.
Does ASML Holding react more to the earnings numbers or to guidance?
In 8 of the last 12 reports (67%), the stock moved the opposite way from whether it beat or missed the forecast. A high share means guidance and expectations drive the move more than the reported numbers.
Can ASML Holding stock fall even when earnings are good?
Yes. In 5 of the last 12 reports, ASML Holding fell on the earnings day despite growing EPS. Expectations already priced in, or guidance, can matter more than the reported numbers.
Does ASML Holding stock keep moving after the earnings day?
Over the last 11 reports, the move continued in the same direction for the following five trading days 55% of the time. This tendency is known as post-earnings announcement drift.