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Arm Holdings (ARM) earnings date & stock reaction

Arm Holdings · Semiconductors

Arm Holdings earnings date & time

Next earningsWed, November 4 around 4:00 PM ET, after the closescheduled

Schedule

Korea time (KST)
Thu, November 5
Reporting pattern
12 of last 12 after close
Typical move
±10.0% · 12-report avg

What the market expects

Consensus EPS

$0.47Coming in above this counts as a beat

Year-ago quarter
$0.39→+20.5%
Full earnings calendarFrom an earnings calendar
Latest reportApr–Jun 2026 results· July 29, 2026 reported
EPS consensus $0.40 → $0.45 ▲ +11.4% beat
Post-earnings price move
Next-day move
+7.4%
After 5 days
+22.1%
Price around earnings
Around this report
Overlapped an FOMC holdThis report landed on a US Federal Reserve rate-decision day. Rate decisions move the whole market, so the move may reflect the decision, not just earnings. A cut is not always good or a hike always bad. Crisis cuts fell, and hikes in a strong economy often rose.Sector peer Intel Corporation (7/23): beat, yet stock -7.9%A same-industry peer, Intel Corporation, reported within the 10 days before this one (6d earlier). How the market took it (next-day move -7.9%) is the best read on the sector mood. A beat that still fell means the bar was high, so this stock may face similar pressure.Down 14% into earningsIn the 3 trading days before this report, the stock moved more than usual. A pre-earnings run-up can mean expectations were already priced in, a drop can mean bad news was priced in early. Read the post-earnings reaction with that in mind.
Earnings callStrong revenue growth driven by cloud AI demand and expanded licensing
“Revenue reached $1.29 billion, up 22% year-over-year, driven by record first quarter licensing and royalty revenue.”
· Rene Haas (CEO)
“We expect license and other revenue to be up about 30% year-on-year and royalty revenue to be up in the low teens year-on-year.”
· Jason Child (CFO)
Positives
  • ▲High Growth in Data Center and AI
    • Data center royalty revenue more than doubled vs last year, expanding market share.
    • Arm Neoverse core shipments surpassed 1.5 billion, solidifying its role as the foundation for AI infrastructure.
  • ▲Strong Licensing and Royalty Performance
    • Licensing revenue grew 23% vs last year to $574 million, reaching a record high.
    • Royalty revenue rose 22% vs last year to $715 million, the highest Q1 figure ever.
  • ▲Improved Profitability and Cash Flow
    • Non-GAAP operating margin improved by 200 basis points vs last year to approximately 41%.
    • Free cash flow of $665 million was generated, providing flexibility for long-term investments.
Concerns
  • ▼Smartphone Market Slowdown
    • Due to smartphone market weakness, the royalty growth outlook was adjusted from 20% to high-teens.
    • Demand softness in smartphones has spread to mid-to-high tier segments, impacting overall growth.
  • ▼Supply Chain Constraints
    • Despite over $2 billion in demand for Arm AGI CPU, supply constraints limit near-term revenue to $1 billion.
    • Tight supply across wafers, substrates, and memory acts as a bottleneck for growth.
Based on the Jul 29, 2026 earnings-call transcript. Quotes are verbatim.

Arm Holdings (ARM) rose the day after earnings in 5 of its last 12 reports (42%), moving ±10.0% on average. It has fallen despite beating the consensus estimate 6 times.

Up next day
5/12
42%
Fell despite growth
3/12
Good earnings ignored
Price when beating
+4.1%
avg over 11 beats
Price when missing
—
never missed
Avg earnings move
±10.0%
typical swing on earnings
Biggest single move
+47.9%
'24.2 · largest reaction
🔑What actually moves this stock?

Even when EPS beat expectations, the stock fell 6 of the last 11 times. The number alone doesn't move it.

What really matters here
AI/data-center chip revenue, next-Q outlook, and margin
In finance terms: Data-center/AI revenue · guidance · margin
What to watch next report

When results drop, check the metric above vs last quarter and whether guidance beats expectations.

The real bar for this stock

Beating estimates isn't enough. Here's where the real surprise started.

Beat consensus 11 of 12 times. Beating is the default here
Median beat +15.4%. 6 of those beats still fell the next day.
Bigger beats didn't mean bigger gains
Surprise size and price moved separately here. Expectations, not beats, drive this stock.

How this stock reacts to earnings

Traits seen across its recent earnings reactions

Even strong results barely move the stock
Up the next day 5 of 11 beats (45%)
Tends to keep drifting the same way for days
Day-one direction continued · 75% of last 12
vs Semiconductors sector avg (6 peers)
This
+2.6%
Sector
-0.8%
Avg next-day reaction

Earnings number vs guidance: which drives it?

How often the beat/miss matched the actual price move

This stock reacts more to guidance & expectations than the reported number
Moved opposite to results 6 of last 11 times (55%)
6xBeat but fell
Even a beat sells off if guidance disappoints
0xMissed but rose
Even a miss rebounds if guidance reassures
Fell despite growth3/12

6/11 beats fell next day · watches Data-center/AI revenue · guidance · margin

Next-day reaction
  • Jun 2026 report+7.4%
  • Mar 2026 report+13.6%
  • Dec 2025 report+5.7%
  • Sep 2025 report-1.2%
  • Jun 2025 report-13.4%
  • Mar 2025 report-6.2%

Earnings timeline · bars = next-day move, ▲▼ = beat/miss

Apr–Jun 2026 results
Reported 2026-07-29
Next-day move
+7.4%
After 5 days +22.1%
EPS consensus $0.40 → $0.45 ▲ +11.4% beat
Price around earnings
Around this report
Overlapped an FOMC holdThis report landed on a US Federal Reserve rate-decision day. Rate decisions move the whole market, so the move may reflect the decision, not just earnings. A cut is not always good or a hike always bad. Crisis cuts fell, and hikes in a strong economy often rose.Sector peer Intel Corporation (7/23): beat, yet stock -7.9%A same-industry peer, Intel Corporation, reported within the 10 days before this one (6d earlier). How the market took it (next-day move -7.9%) is the best read on the sector mood. A beat that still fell means the bar was high, so this stock may face similar pressure.Down 14% into earningsIn the 3 trading days before this report, the stock moved more than usual. A pre-earnings run-up can mean expectations were already priced in, a drop can mean bad news was priced in early. Read the post-earnings reaction with that in mind.

Earnings trend · last 12 quarters

EPS$0.45YoY +29%
'23.11'26.7
Revenue—
'23.11'26.7

Earnings history and price reaction

Arm Holdings across its last 12 earnings reports: EPS versus consensus, the move on the earnings day, and the cumulative move five trading days later.
Quarter endedReported (ET)vs market expectation (consensus)Earnings dayAfter 5 days
6/20262026-07-29+11.4%+7.4%+22.1%
3/20262026-05-05+3.6%+13.6%-0.4%
12/20252026-02-04+5.1%+5.7%+19.4%
9/20252025-11-05+17.7%-1.2%-7.1%
6/20252025-07-30-0.3%-13.4%-16.7%
3/20252025-05-07+5.0%-6.2%+7.5%

12 reports, quarters ending 9/2023 to 6/2026. The earnings-day move is the first trading day that reflects the report; the five-day figure is the cumulative move from that point.

Frequently asked questions

When is the next Arm Holdings earnings date?

The next Arm Holdings (ARM) earnings report is expected Wed, November 4 around 4:00 PM ET, after the close. It comes from an earnings calendar and may not be a company-confirmed date; it updates automatically if it changes.

What is the consensus EPS forecast for Arm Holdings's next earnings?

Analysts expect EPS of about $0.47 for Arm Holdings (ARM). Coming in above that counts as a beat, below it a miss — though a beat does not guarantee the stock rises.

Does Arm Holdings (ARM) stock usually go up after earnings?

Over the last 12 earnings reports, the stock rose on 5 of them (42%). The average move on earnings day was ±10.0%.

Does Arm Holdings react more to the earnings numbers or to guidance?

In 6 of the last 11 reports (55%), the stock moved the opposite way from whether it beat or missed the forecast. A high share means guidance and expectations drive the move more than the reported numbers.

Can Arm Holdings stock fall even when earnings are good?

Yes. In 3 of the last 12 reports, Arm Holdings fell on the earnings day despite growing EPS. Expectations already priced in, or guidance, can matter more than the reported numbers.

Does Arm Holdings stock keep moving after the earnings day?

Over the last 12 reports, the move continued in the same direction for the following five trading days 75% of the time. This tendency is known as post-earnings announcement drift.