What is earnings analysis?
It works on two layers: the numbers (EPS/revenue surprise versus consensus, plus next-quarter guidance) and the reaction (how the stock moved the next day). The key is the relationship between them — did a good number lift the stock, or did it fall anyway?
What to look at in an earnings report
Look at numbers alone and you'll be wrong about half the time. Read these together:
- 1EPS/revenue surprisethe beat or miss versus consensus.
- 2Guidanceoften moves the stock more than the result itself.
- 3Next-day price reactionand whether it matches the result.
- 4Past patternhow this stock has historically reacted.
Reading the ‘good earnings ignored’ signal
Some stocks fall even after beating consensus — when growth was already priced in or guidance disappointed. Others rise on a weak print because it was ‘less bad than feared.’ Stocks that frequently show this mismatch need to be read with expectations and positioning in mind, not just the number.
How to analyze earnings with data
AFTERNS shows post-earnings reactions for 1,200+ US stocks over 3 years — next-day up probability, average earnings-day move, the beat/miss vs price-direction mismatch rate, guidance reaction, and the next earnings date. Pairing the numbers with the historical reaction pattern makes your read far more accurate.
Frequently asked questions
What matters most in earnings analysis?
Reading the reported numbers together with the price reaction. Good numbers often still drop a stock, so the number alone misleads about half the time.
Why do stocks fall on good earnings?
When growth was already priced in or guidance disappoints. Markets react to the gap versus expectations, not the raw number.
Related guides
Does this stock rise or fall on earnings?
See post-earnings price reactions for 1,200+ US stocks, backed by data.
Check it now