Can you predict an earnings reaction?
Pinpointing the exact EPS or next-day move is impossible. But patterns — average move and how often a stock rose the next day — tend to repeat. Previewing earnings means reading those patterns and market expectations to prepare for likely scenarios.
Four things to check before the report
- 1Consensus EPSthe expected number and the starting point for any reaction.
- 2Past post-earnings reactionnext-day up probability and average move.
- 3Timingbefore market (BMO) reacts same day, after close (AMC) reacts next day.
- 4Pre-earnings momentuma big run-up can mean good results are already priced in.
It's the gap versus expectations, not the number
The common mistake is assuming ‘good earnings means the stock rises.’ Stocks fall nearly half the time even after a beat, because markets react to the surprise versus expectations and to guidance — and a stock that already ran up often shrugs off good numbers.
How to prepare with data
AFTERNS shows post-earnings reactions for 1,200+ US stocks over 3 years, with consensus EPS, next-day up probability, average earnings-day move, and the next earnings date. Before previewing a report, start with how the stock has actually reacted.
Frequently asked questions
Can you accurately predict the earnings move?
Not the exact move. But past reaction patterns and consensus expectations let you prepare for the likely scenarios.
Does beating consensus mean the stock goes up?
Not always — stocks fall nearly half the time after a beat when expectations were already high or guidance disappoints.
Related guides
Does this stock rise or fall on earnings?
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