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Shopify (SHOP) earnings date & stock reaction

Shopify · IT

Shopify earnings date & time

Next earningsTue, November 3, time TBAscheduled

Schedule

Korea time (KST)
Tue, November 3
Reporting pattern
12 of last 12 before open
Typical move
±13.8% · 12-report avg

What the market expects

Consensus EPS

$0.46Coming in above this counts as a beat

Year-ago quarter
$0.34→+35.3%
Full earnings calendarFrom an earnings calendar
Latest reportApr–Jun 2026 results· August 5, 2026 reported
EPS consensus $0.40 → $0.42 ▲ +5.0% beat
Post-earnings price move
Next-day move
+17.0%
After 5 days
+23.8%
Price around earnings
Around this report
Sector peer Strategy Inc Common Stock Class A -4.6% next day (7/30)A same-industry peer, Strategy Inc Common Stock Class A, reported within the 10 days before this one (6d earlier). How the market took it (next-day move -4.6%) is the best read on the sector mood. A beat that still fell means the bar was high, so this stock may face similar pressure.
Earnings callStrong 30%+ growth in GMV and revenue with improved profitability
“This marks our fifth straight quarter of GMV growth above 30%. Of all the numbers, our GMV is the one worth repeating. Our merchants processed $116 billion this quarter.”
· Harley Finkelstein, President
“Q2 marks the fifth consecutive quarter with constant currency GMV growth of 29%-30%. A tight band, and importantly, even as our scale has grown and the year-over-year comps have gotten tougher, we have consistently delivered these growth rates.”
· Jeff Hoffmeister, CFO
Positives
  • ▲Broad-based 30%+ growth
    • GMV reached $115.6 billion this quarter, up 32% vs last year.
    • Revenue was $3.58 billion, up 34% vs last year, marking the fifth straight quarter of 30%+ growth.
  • ▲Improved profitability metrics
    • Operating income was $488 million this quarter, significantly up from $291 million in the same period last year.
    • Free cash flow margin reached 18%, improving from 16% in the prior year.
  • ▲Expansion in payments and offline
    • Shopify Payments penetration rose 3 percentage points vs last year, accounting for 68% of global GMV.
    • Offline POS GMV grew 32% vs last year, showing solid momentum.
Concerns
  • ▼Slower growth in subscription solutions
    • Subscription solutions revenue grew 22% vs last year, significantly trailing the total revenue growth rate of 34%.
    • MRR growth also stood at 19%, lagging behind the overall revenue growth trend.
  • ▼Rising operating expenses
    • Total operating expenses reached $1.22 billion this quarter, up 20.7% from $1.01 billion in the same period last year.
    • Transaction and loan losses surged to $141 million from $80 million in the prior year, a 75% increase.
Based on the Aug 5, 2026 earnings-call transcript. Quotes are verbatim.

Shopify (SHOP) rose the day after earnings in 6 of its last 12 reports (50%), moving ±13.8% on average. It has fallen despite beating the consensus estimate 3 times.

Up next day
6/12
50%
Fell despite growth
3/12
Good earnings ignored
Price when beating
+6.2%
avg over 9 beats
Price when missing
-3.6%
avg over 2 misses
Avg earnings move
±13.8%
typical swing on earnings
Biggest single move
+22.4%
'23.11 · largest reaction
🔑What actually moves this stock?

Even when EPS beat expectations, the stock fell 3 of the last 7 times. The number alone doesn't move it.

What really matters here
How fast the steady subscription-style revenue is growing
In finance terms: ARR · RPO (recurring revenue · backlog)
What to watch next report

When results drop, check the metric above vs last quarter and whether guidance beats expectations.

The real bar for this stock

Beating estimates isn't enough. Here's where the real surprise started.

Beat consensus 7 of 9 times
Median beat +8.6%. 3 of those beats still fell the next day.
Reports that rose beat by +22.1% (median). Reports that fell beat by just +8.6%
Roughly +22.1% was the bar this stock had to clear.

How this stock reacts to earnings

Traits seen across its recent earnings reactions

Good results usually push the stock up
Up the next day 6 of 9 beats (67%)
Moves in line with results, fairly predictable
Avg +6.2% on a beat, -3.6% on a miss
Tends to keep drifting the same way for days
Day-one direction continued · 58% of last 12
vs IT sector avg (192 peers)
This
+3.5%
Sector
+0.9%
Avg next-day reaction

Earnings number vs guidance: which drives it?

How often the beat/miss matched the actual price move

This stock mostly moves with the reported earnings number
Moved opposite to results 3 of last 11 times (27%)
3xBeat but fell
Even a beat sells off if guidance disappoints
0xMissed but rose
Even a miss rebounds if guidance reassures
Fell despite growth3/12

3/9 beats fell next day · watches ARR · RPO (recurring revenue · backlog)

Next-day reaction
  • Jun 2026 report+17.0%
  • Mar 2026 report-15.6%
  • Dec 2025 report-6.7%
  • Sep 2025 report-6.9%
  • Jun 2025 report+22.0%
  • Mar 2025 report-0.5%

Earnings timeline · bars = next-day move, ▲▼ = beat/miss

Apr–Jun 2026 results
Reported 2026-08-05
Next-day move
+17.0%
After 5 days +23.8%
EPS consensus $0.40 → $0.42 ▲ +5.0% beat
Price around earnings
Around this report
Sector peer Strategy Inc Common Stock Class A -4.6% next day (7/30)A same-industry peer, Strategy Inc Common Stock Class A, reported within the 10 days before this one (6d earlier). How the market took it (next-day move -4.6%) is the best read on the sector mood. A beat that still fell means the bar was high, so this stock may face similar pressure.

Earnings trend · last 12 quarters

EPS$0.42YoY +20%
'23.11'26.8
Revenue—
'23.11'26.8

Earnings history and price reaction

Shopify across its last 12 earnings reports: EPS versus consensus, the move on the earnings day, and the cumulative move five trading days later.
Quarter endedReported (ET)vs market expectation (consensus)Earnings dayAfter 5 days
6/20262026-08-05+5.0%+17.0%+23.8%
3/20262026-05-05+8.6%-15.6%-19.6%
12/20252026-02-11-5.7%-6.7%-4.4%
9/20252025-11-04+0.6%-6.9%-8.1%
6/20252025-08-06+22.1%+22.0%+17.6%
3/20252025-05-08-4.5%-0.5%+17.9%

12 reports, quarters ending 9/2023 to 6/2026. The earnings-day move is the first trading day that reflects the report; the five-day figure is the cumulative move from that point.

Frequently asked questions

When is the next Shopify earnings date?

The next Shopify (SHOP) earnings report is expected Tue, November 3, time TBA. It comes from an earnings calendar and may not be a company-confirmed date; it updates automatically if it changes.

What is the consensus EPS forecast for Shopify's next earnings?

Analysts expect EPS of about $0.46 for Shopify (SHOP). Coming in above that counts as a beat, below it a miss — though a beat does not guarantee the stock rises.

Does Shopify (SHOP) stock usually go up after earnings?

Over the last 12 earnings reports, the stock rose on 6 of them (50%). The average move on earnings day was ±13.8%.

Does Shopify react more to the earnings numbers or to guidance?

In 3 of the last 11 reports (27%), the stock moved the opposite way from whether it beat or missed the forecast. A high share means guidance and expectations drive the move more than the reported numbers.

Can Shopify stock fall even when earnings are good?

Yes. In 3 of the last 12 reports, Shopify fell on the earnings day despite growing EPS. Expectations already priced in, or guidance, can matter more than the reported numbers.

Does Shopify stock keep moving after the earnings day?

Over the last 12 reports, the move continued in the same direction for the following five trading days 58% of the time. This tendency is known as post-earnings announcement drift.