AA
Alcoa Corporation Common Stock
AA · Alcoa Corporation Common Stock · Industrials
Up next day
5/12
42%
Fell despite growth
5/12
Good earnings ignored
Avg earnings move
±4.2%
typical swing on earnings
Price when beating
-0.2%
avg over 8 beats
Biggest single move
+12.6%
'25.9 · largest reaction
How this stock reacts to earnings
Traits seen across its recent earnings reactions
Tends to slide in the week before earnings
Fell beforehand 10 of last 12 · avg -2.8%
Even strong results barely move the stock
Up the next day 3 of 8 beats (38%)
Reaction is erratic and hard to predict
Avg -0.2% on a beat, -1.9% on a miss
Tends to keep drifting the same way for days
Day-one direction continued · 67% of last 12
vs Industrials sector avg (197 peers)
This
-0.7%
Sector
+0.5%
Avg next-day reaction
Earnings number vs guidance — which drives it?
How often the beat/miss matched the actual price move
This stock reacts more to guidance & expectations than the reported number
Moved opposite to results 7 of last 12 times (58%)
5xBeat but fell
Even a beat sells off if guidance disappoints
2xMissed but rose
Even a miss rebounds if guidance reassures
Earnings timeline · tap a bar for that quarter
Oct 15After close
'26.9 expectedEst. EPS $1.56
Quarter ended 6/2026
Reported 2026-07-30
Next-day move
+0.6%
After 5 days +5.6%
vs Consensus$2.19→$2.12-3.2% miss
EPS
$2.12
YoY +444%
Revenue
$4.0B
YoY +31%
Next-Q guidance
—
N/A
Price around earnings
-28% dip before
Earnings trend · last 12 quarters
EPS$2.12YoY +444%
'23.9'26.6
Revenue$4.0BYoY +31%
'23.9'26.6
Price vs earnings · last 12 quarters
↑Up↓Down
Bad news out
weak · up ↑
2x17%
Met expectations
good · up ↑
3x25%
Disappointment
weak · down ↓
2x17%
Good earnings ignored
good · down ↓
5x42%
← ← Weak earningsStrong earnings → →
Even on good earnings, the price often fell — earnings poorly reflected · 5 of 12q (42%)
Community · AA
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