TO
Toll Brothers Inc.
TOL · Toll Brothers Inc. · Consumer Discretionary
Up next day
5/12
42%
Fell despite growth
3/12
Good earnings ignored
Avg earnings move
±3.2%
typical swing on earnings
Price when beating
+0.6%
avg over 10 beats
Biggest single move
+9.8%
'26.4 · largest reaction
How this stock reacts to earnings
Traits seen across its recent earnings reactions
Beating estimates doesn't always lift it
Up the next day 5 of 10 beats (50%)
Moves in line with results — fairly predictable
Avg +0.6% on a beat, -3.0% on a miss
Tends to keep drifting the same way for days
Day-one direction continued · 58% of last 12
vs Consumer Discretionary sector avg (201 peers)
This
0.0%
Sector
+0.5%
Avg next-day reaction
Earnings number vs guidance — which drives it?
How often the beat/miss matched the actual price move
The number and guidance move the price about equally
Moved opposite to results 5 of last 12 times (42%)
5xBeat but fell
Even a beat sells off if guidance disappoints
0xMissed but rose
Even a miss rebounds if guidance reassures
Earnings timeline · tap a bar for that quarter
Dec 8After close
'26.7 expectedEst. EPS $4.95
Quarter ended 4/2026
Reported 2026-05-19
Next-day move
+9.8%
After 5 days +12.7%
vs Consensus$2.59→$2.72+5.1% beat
EPS
$2.72
YoY -22%
Revenue
$2.5B
YoY -8%
Next-Q guidance
—
N/A
Price around earnings
Rose despite missvs market +8.8%p4.6x normal — unusual surge-22% dip before
Earnings trend · last 12 quarters
EPS$2.72YoY -22%
'23.7'26.4
Revenue$2.5BYoY -8%
'23.7'26.4
Price vs earnings · last 12 quarters
↑Up↓Down
Bad news out
weak · up ↑
2x17%
Met expectations
good · up ↑
3x25%
Disappointment
weak · down ↓
4x33%
Good earnings ignored
good · down ↓
3x25%
← ← Weak earningsStrong earnings → →
Weak earnings, price down — reacts honestly to earnings · 4 of 12q (33%)
Community · TOL
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