PG
Progressive Corporation (The)
PGR · Progressive Corporation (The) · Financials
Up next day
7/12
58%
Fell despite growth
5/12
Good earnings ignored
Avg earnings move
±1.0%
typical swing on earnings
Price when beating
+0.1%
avg over 9 beats
Biggest single move
+2.9%
'25.9 · largest reaction
How this stock reacts to earnings
Traits seen across its recent earnings reactions
Even strong results barely move the stock
Up the next day 4 of 9 beats (44%)
Reaction is erratic and hard to predict
Avg +0.1% on a beat, +2.1% on a miss
Tends to keep drifting the same way for days
Day-one direction continued · 83% of last 12
vs Financials sector avg (202 peers)
This
+0.6%
Sector
+0.3%
Avg next-day reaction
Earnings number vs guidance — which drives it?
How often the beat/miss matched the actual price move
This stock reacts more to guidance & expectations than the reported number
Moved opposite to results 8 of last 12 times (67%)
5xBeat but fell
Even a beat sells off if guidance disappoints
3xMissed but rose
Even a miss rebounds if guidance reassures
Earnings timeline · tap a bar for that quarter
Oct 14Before open
'26.9 expectedEst. EPS $3.93
Quarter ended 6/2026
Reported 2026-08-03
Next-day move
+0.1%
After 5 days +1.7%
vs Consensus$4.84→$4.85+0.3% beat
EPS
$4.85
YoY -1%
Revenue
$23.6B
YoY +7%
Next-Q guidance
—
N/A
Price around earnings
vs market -1.7%p
Earnings trend · last 12 quarters
EPS$4.85YoY -1%
'23.9'26.6
Revenue$23.6BYoY +7%
'23.9'26.6
Price vs earnings · last 12 quarters
↑Up↓Down
Bad news out
weak · up ↑
1x8%
Met expectations
good · up ↑
6x50%
Disappointment
weak · down ↓
0x
Good earnings ignored
good · down ↓
5x42%
← ← Weak earningsStrong earnings → →
Mostly 'honest' — good earnings, price up · 6 of 12q (50%)
Community · PGR
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